The definition of a Winning System (and how to win without one)
Kavouras
There is a huge misunderstanding going on -for too many years- in the roulette cycles. It is about the most fundamental issue of whether it is at all possible to win or not. Can there ever be a consistently winning, unbeatable strategy or method, given the randomness of the game and the 2,7% payout disadvantage of the player against the house? This is THE question.
First of all, we need to define what we mean by winning system or unbeatable system or holy grail as they often call it.
A. Do we mean a system that can produce consistent profits given any possible series of spin outcomes?
There is no such system. Because none can guarantee 100% that the outcome of the next spin will not be different than what we have bet on.
B. Do we mean a system that somehow negates the player payout disadvantage?
There is not such system. This is like asking if a football player is able to change the dimensions of a goalpost.
C. Do we mean a system that can provide the player with an advantage, based on roulette insights from experience and/or probability theory?
This definition seems too vague to most mathematicians (and gamblers). But this is the only definition worth pursuing. This is the only question worth asking.
The problem is that most people define a winning system as in A or B. They want a straight, clear definition. They want easy and sure profits. They want proof. And consistency. And certainty. Well, they wont get any! There is no such system. End of story. If you are looking for such a system stop gambling and go home.
Kavouras
Now I’ll show you why asking for an “A” or “B” winning system is a flawed, stupid and useless approach to roulette.
It is stupid, because it becomes quickly obvious that such a system cannot exist. What’s the point of discussing about something that doesn’t exist?
It is flawed, because it overvalues certainty. Life is full of uncertainties. We have no idea when we die, or when we’ll meet the lady of our life, or if it will rain in a week, or if a stock will do well, or if Ronaldo will score next time. Yet we require absolute, provable certainty from the random game of roulette. This is ridiculous. It is just a proof how arrogant and narrow-minded math-boys are and how lazy and venal gamblers are. You live a life in which nothing – nothing – is certain. At the same time you dismiss any roulette approach that isn’t a 100% foolproof consistent winner. If you had the same requirements of certainty in any other endeavor of your life, you’d be considered a psycho. Still, you have the nerve to ask for certainty in roulette and keep a straight face.
Above all, this approach is useless, because it is irrelevant to the practical issue of making money. Making money has nothing to do with guaranties and equations. There is no 100% guarantee that a business will make money, though that is no reason not to start a business. None could ever be 100% sure Warren Buffet would get rich, yet this didn’t stop him from becoming the richest man in the world. John Meriwether, a brilliant trader with an elite team of mathematicians and other scientists, including 2 Nobel prize winners, thought he had the safest way to win money. He was a consistent winner for many years, had won billions and then he lost a trillion. Come and tell me about certainty.
Kavouras: It’s because the “math guys” are mostly arrogant and narrow-minded and the “gamblers” are mostly lazy and venal. But above all, it’s because none understands the meaning of “winning strategy” – and everyone asks for a free meal.
Something being uncertain does not mean it is not likely. In fact, it doesn’t mean anything at all – it’s just stating the obvious.
So quit asking stupid questions. Stop having unrealistic expectations. Quit looking for a free meal. Let the naysayers keep looking for risk-less profit and making a big deal out of not finding any. Study, think, test, be creative and Take Your Risks. Stop asking for sure profits. Profits without risk. They do not exist. Not in roulette, nor anywhere else. Start looking for profits by knowingly taking risks.
No, there is no “Winning Roulette System“. But you can still win without one. I’ll show you how…
And he showed me.
Update
Recently I had an exchange in a roulette forum, with someone who posted:
It would be so great if we had found a bet selection that would be superior from the others and play it and make money from roulette as pro players. Unfortunately as all mature roulette researchers know , till now no superior bet selection has been found.
My reply:
If you start a business is there anyone guaranteeing you that you will be successful? Is there a 100% sure method to succeed in business? Is this reason not to start a business? Does that mean you can not become successful?
If you are looking for a 100% sure method that will win consistently, quit this game. There is no such thing. What there is, are strategies that are better than others! The benefit of a really good strategy is that is offers you better chances of being a winner than a loser, but nothing is 100% sure. Of the 100 people who will follow a really good strategy 60% might be winners, while the rest 40% would have lost money. According to my book this is a great strategy. Yet you can always be unlucky. There are always what statisticians call fat tails of the distribution. Roulette is part of life and cannot ignore the laws of life. There can be Harvard students who don’t achieve anything, does that mean Harvard is not the best university in the world? You must understand that an advantage does not always results in success. And this is true for the casino and for he player as it is for a Harvard student and everyone else. In anything we do. Even the basis of existence, our genetic code, is a form of roulette.
In what other aspect of your life do you ask for the certainty that you ask from roulette? Your health? Your wife? Your profession? Your soccer team? Why do you think it is reasonable to ask for unrealistic certainty in a casino game?
