Serious casino gamblers understand the concept of the return of casino games. Simply put, it is the amount of money bet while playing a casino game that is returned to the player.
Most also understand that the return percentages given are mathematically calculated and are based on an infinite number of bets. They understand the short-term return percentages can vary significantly from the mathematically calculated long-term return percentages.
Few gamblers understand how the transition from short-term to long-term results works. Many gamblers, systems sellers, and pundits also do not understand this phenomenon.
Is any casino game ever due? Read on to find out.
Contents
- Why do people feel casino games are due?
- Definition of random games
- Definition of due
- The fallacy of a casino game being due
- Summary
Why do people feel casino games are due?
As explained in the introduction, return from casino games can, in the short-run, vary dramatically from the mathematically calculated return percentage.
Take the simple example of flipping a coin. A player can bet on either heads or tails showing. A bet on the correct result pays even money. A coin can end up heads or tails. There is a mathematically calculated return of 100% in a fair flip since with an infinite number of flips both heads and tails should appear equally. The player wins one dollar on half the bets and loses one dollar on the other half the bets.
Here is an example. The player always bets one dollar on heads. If a head shows, the player wins one dollar. If a tail shows, the player loses one dollar. Here is a sample run.
- Heads – return is 100% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $1)
- Heads – return is 200% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $2)
- Heads – return is 300% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $3)
- Tails – return is 200% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $2)
- Heads – return is 300% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $3)
How about a more complex example? This is not a casino game but illustrates a point.
There are four red balls and one black ball ball in a bag. The player bets one dollar. A random ball is pulled out of the bag. If it is a red ball, and red was bet, the player wins one dollar. If it is a black ball and black was bet, the player wins four dollars since a red ball is four times as likely as a black ball. The calculated return on this game is also 100%. Here is a sample run.
- Black – return is 400 percent (bets $1, wins $4, total win $4)
- Black – return is 800 percent (bets $1, wins $4, total win $8)
- Black – return is 1200 percent (bets $1, wins $4, total win $12)
- Black – return is 1600 percent (bets $1, wins $4, total win $16)
In both cases, the player is up more than the mathematical average.
It seems logical that in the first case tails are due and in the second case red is due. This is the basis for the “due theory” in gambling. But, are tails or red truly due?
Definition of random games
Casino games are all classified as random games. This is accomplished by a randomizing method for table games, such as shuffling the card deck or randomly releasing a ball onto a spinning roulette wheel. On slot machines or video poker a computer software routine called a Random Number Generator or RNG is used.
What is the definition of random? According to Merriam-Webster, random means lacking a definite plan, purpose, or pattern. In the case of casino games, random means there is no pattern. Outcomes cannot be predicted.
Definition of due
Merriam-Webster lists several definitions of the adverb, due. “Required or expected in the prescribed, normal, or logical course of events: scheduled” applies to casino games.
The fallacy of a casino game being due
In both sample runs in section one, return percentage is skewed in favor of the player. The problem with thinking that something is due is the fact that by the very definitions of random (no pattern/cannot be predicted) and due (scheduled) nothing can be considered due in a casino game.
Almost every betting system touted by pundits and sold by systems sellers is based on the false assumption that something is due. One example is waiting until red has not appeared on a roulette table for 10 or 15 times, then bet red.
Because the specified event is random, it cannot be predicted. Black (or green) could appear for the next 20 or 25 spins of the wheel.
It works the other way also. In video poker, royal flushes occur once every 40,000 or so hands. But that does not mean that a player must wait 40,000 hands for the next royal flush. They can occur back-to-back … -to-back. It is unlikely, but possible in a random game.
Summary
The feeling among gamblers that some event is due in a casino game is very common. When slot machine players feed bill after bill into the machine only to have it quickly gobbled up by the machine, it seems logical to feel that some wins are coming.
When someone touts a betting system based on a certain event either happening or not happening, it seems logical that the system should work. Most often those systems do work – for a while. Ultimately, however, even the most logical-sounding betting system will fail and cause substantial losses simply because players are betting on a random event.
Believing that something is due in a casino game is not bad – in itself. What is bad is taking action that causes you to bet more money chasing this (false) due event.
Do not let logical-sounding but false ideas alter your normal, controlled play in the casino.
