Aces Manufacturing based in Las Vegas produces “Video Poker Analyzer” capable of monitoring players expertise in playing correct video poker strategy. In the first quarter of 2024 they published a study that identified profits lost to advantage video poker players.
This article explores that article and make some observations.
Contents
- The highlights of the study
- How the Video Poker Analyzer works
- Study recommendations
- What does this mean for video poker players?
- And another thing
- Summary
The highlights of the study
The study, which was published by the company on March 20, 2024, used information gathered by the company’s Video Poker Analyzer. The purpose of the analyzer is to reveal “the identity and lost-profit impact of highly skilled video poker players, known to the industry as Advantage Players (‘APs’).”
The study is based on data from over “three million hands played by over one thousand identified carded players.” According to the study a “small population” of APs can consistently win and obtain a lopsided portion of casino offers.
Specifics according to the study are:
- About 1 percent of the population is made up of APs.
- These players garnered 25.63% of live casinos' trackable (player’s club card inserted) wins during the study.
- Over two-thirds of these players made a profit from their play.
- Because these players were responsible for almost 26% of the coin-in, loyalty programs rewarded them more highly than less skilled players.
How the Video Poker Analyzer works
According to the study Video Poker Analyzer (VPA) is “compatible with any modern slot machine and any casino management system.” The VPA tracks each hand dealt and monitors the player's hold choices.
These choices are then compared to the optimal strategy and a dollar value is assigned to any player error. A “skill rating can be assigned to help predict the casino’s profit and loss each time the carded player returns.”
Study recommendations
The study states that the VPA can identify APs to which casinos can then restrict marketing offers and redirect them to less-skilled players.
It states that by using the VPA data, casinos could see more than a 45% improvement to video poker profits by excluding and reducing APs through a reallocation of marketing dollars to more profitable players.
What does this mean for video poker players?
Before this product, the only skill factor casinos could track were the wins and losses of carded players on these casino games. They knew the coin-in and the amount cashed out. The problem with this is even players who play perfectly can have days where they lose. Poor players can have days where they win. This product can eliminate doubt from the equation.
The numbers quoted in the study seem a bit high to me. This could be due to the casino that was included in the study. The play for the study was taken “at a Las Vegas locals casino.” Locals casinos tend to have higher returns. They also tend to have better offers such as cash back and point multipliers on certain days.
The study focuses strictly on the APs. While I have no doubt they win more (or lose less) in the long run, without special offers, such as point multipliers, they will not win in the long run. Very few pay tables are positive any more.
It is entirely possible that the product is directed at locals’ casinos since strip and even downtown casinos on average have much lower returns than locals. This, alone, tends to keep APs away.
This product should not cause casinos to lower returns on video poker – well not any more than casinos are already inclined to lower them. It seems this product can be used to accurately identify and act on other elements of the casino player’s experience.
These items could include cash back, points multipliers, and other casino bonus and promotion offers. VPA would help target good players for reduction in such offers.
Also, currently some casino players' clubs already factor in losses as a criteria for offers and other comps such as rooms and free food and drink. If you lose too little, you do not get as much of those freebies. There is little need for casinos to pay for the VPA system when the casino factors in losses.
And another thing …
I am not aware how seriously casinos take the argument that advantage players bring with them less skilled players. These players help offset whatever the APs win. Some casinos allow players to link players' club cards for comps.
These casinos can track how much players linked to the APs add to their coffers. But advantage players also bring friends who would not be linked – nor tracked. So, casinos could be hurting themselves by acting based strictly on the advantage players.
There is also the argument that many casino-goers spend money in other areas. They buy food, drink, and merchandise. While I am sure casino management is aware of these amounts, they have no good way to tie it to a players club card.
Summary
The Video Poker Analyzer will definitely help casinos locate video poker advantage players. I am confident that some casinos will opt to pay for this product and act based on data collected. They will have the data and can apply a fix any way they see fit.
Even though the study shows that 1 percent of carded players account for almost 26% of the coin in, thereby getting a good share of offers, there is a down side.
- The Video Poker Analyzer has costs for the casino to use it.
- It only tracks carded video poker players.
- It does not have the ability to track those who accompany the advantage players.
- Depending on the cost, simply losing advantage players along with their companions could hurt the casino more than it helps.
Time will tell how Las Vegas casinos will react to Video Poker Analyzer.
