If you are like most video poker players, you do not expect a lot when you are dealt a low pair for your initial hand. It seems like these hands never turn into winners.
But, is that really the case? Is a low pair is such a bad initial hand? If it is, why does a low pair hold end up so high in playing strategy charts?
Contents
- Strategy chart positioning
- Why low pairs are saved
- Comparing results of other holds
- Review and Summary
- Strategy chart positioning
Just how high are low pairs in strategy charts?
There are several video poker strategy-producing programs available. Some produce a basic as well as an advanced strategy. Others just produce a single strategy for each game and pay table combination. Still others may give three or four levels of strategy so beginners can work their way up to the maximum overall return in stages.
For the following examples, I used the basic strategy charts created by the program I use most often. There are fewer lines in basic than advanced, but many strategy charts are summarized without impacting the results in order to make them more readable and quicker to reference. The approximate percentage of placement from the top of the chart is similar in any case.
The table below gives the relative placement of the “low-pair” line on the strategy chart for various games and pay tables.
| Game - Pay Table | Return | Total Lines | Low Pair Line | % From Top |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jacks or Better – 9/6 |
99.54% | 44 | 16 | 36 |
|
Jacks or Better – 8/5 |
97.29% | 44 | 16 | 36 |
|
Bonus Poker – 8/5 |
99.16% | 49 | 21 | 43 |
|
Double Bonus Poker – 10/7/5 |
100.17% | 59 | 24 | 41 |
|
Double Bonus Poker – 9/6/5 |
97.81% | 53 | 21 | 40 |
|
Dbl-Dbl Bonus Poker – 9/6 |
98.98% | 56 | 26 | 46 |
|
Jokers Wild Kings – 17/7/5 |
98.44% | 65 | 19 | 29 |
You may have noticed that only one wildcard game is shown. Other wildcard games such as Deuces Wild are not included in the chart. There is a very simple reason for this. Almost all these wildcard games in a casino do not distinguish between low pairs and high pairs in the strategy. Only pairs are referenced – whether they are high or low is of no importance.
Why low pairs are saved
Let us take a look at what you can really expect when dealt a low pair. A full pay (9-for-1 for a full house, 6-for-1 for a flush) Jacks or Better game is used for the example, but other (non-wildcard) games have similar results. In order to be accurate with the results, we need to make sure the hands being considered have only a low pair. The information shown below is based on a hand with a low pair only and no possibility of a straight or flush.
Let us look at the following sample hand. The initially dealt hand consists of the 6 of clubs, 6 of diamonds, king of diamonds, 8 of hearts, 2 of spades.
This hand has a low pair and no shot at a flush or straight. Any hand that has a low pair and no shot at a straight or flush will produce exactly the same results.
The highest return of any possible hold comes from holding the two sixes. The return for this hold is 4.1184 credits based on an initial five-credit bet. That is better than an 80% return. While the return varies with other games and pay tables, a low pair does have a fairly decent return in any non-wildcard game.
What winning hands generate this return of 4.1184 credits? How many different hands are possible and how is that return spread over those hands?
These are all very good questions. Here is the breakdown.
Let us take a look at all the possible hands when holding just a low pair. The table below shows the number of occurrences, the percentage of that occurrence and the return rate for each possible resulting hand. The frequency numbers are based on a 16,215 total possible resulting hands.
| Hand | Frequency | Percent | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Loser |
11,559 | 71.3 % | 0 |
|
Two Pairs |
2,592 | 16.0 % | 2 for 1 |
|
Three of a Kind |
1,854 | 11.4 % | 3 for 1 |
|
Full House |
165 | 1.0 % | 9 for 1 |
|
4 of a Kind |
45 | 0.3 % | 125 for 1 |
On this hand players lose a bit more than 71% of the time.
Comparing results of other holds
Earlier I said the highest overall return from this hand is obtained by holding the low pair of sixes. Now let us see what the returns would be for other possible holds.
Most video poker players who would not hold the low pair would instead opt to hold the lone king of diamonds in the hope of snagging another king for a high pair. That hold returns 2.3765 credits on average for the five credits bet – considerably less than the 4.1184 credits returned when holding the low pair.
Even more incredible, there are three holds that return MORE than the king of diamonds hold.
Those holds are:
- 6 of clubs, 6 of diamonds, king of diamonds
- 6 of clubs, 6 of diamonds, 8 of hearts
- 6 of clubs, 6 of diamonds, 2 of spades
Each of these holds returns 3.3765 credits for the five credits bet – significantly more than holding the lone king of diamonds.
Review and summary
Video poker players tend to remember big wins more than losses. But video poker players also remember losses. With a low pair, this means they remember the over seven losses out of every 10 hands. What they remember is not the minor winning hands, it is the hand after hand that ends up as a loss.
By saving the low pair and discarding the king many players feel they are making the wrong play. They are giving up any shot at a royal flush. They are wrong.
While it is true that a low pair will most often return nothing (more than seven out of 10 times), making it seem that one never wins with it, at times the win can be very healthy (up to 800 for 1 in Triple Double Bonus Poker). This helps explain its fairly high position in strategy. The winning hands may not be very frequent, but they can pay extremely well.
Remember also, in the game of Jacks or Better, the actual return for an initial hand of a low pair is 82% of the bet. While this number includes the fairly infrequent full house and four of a kind hands, it is still a very decent return,
While holding a high pair will guarantee at least the return of the initial bet, if the draw after holding a low pair produces a winning hand, it will always improve upon the 1-for-1 return from a high pair. Maybe this type of thinking can help players get through that miserable 71-plus percent loss rate of low pair hands.
