House edges are important guides to your shot to win in any casino game, but they're not the only factor.
Speed of play can make a difference. It certainly does in craps, which has a collection of bets that vary not only in house edge and in rolls per decision.
A craps bet can have a lower house edge than another, yet lead you to larger losses per 100 rolls because decisions come faster.
The Field vs. Place Bets
Take the field bet, which in its better version has a house edge of 2.78%. You win even money on the field if the roll is 3, 4, 9, 10 or 11. Commonly, you win and are paid at 2-1 odds if the roll is 2, and are paid at 3-1 odds if the roll is 12.
A small number of casinos reverse the 2-12 payoffs so you win 2-1 on 12 or 3-1 on 2. That does not affect the house edge, which remains at 2.78%. If your casino pays only 2-1 on both 2 and 12, the house edge soars to 5.56%.
That 2.78% edge is lower than place bets on either 5 or 9, with a 4% house edge. It's much lower than the 6.67% edge on either 4 or 10, though not as favorable
Should you make the field bet instead of placing 4 or 10, or 5 or 9? Not necessarily.
The field is a one-roll bet. It move much faster and puts more pressure on your bankroll than placing 5 or 9, with an average of 3.6 rolls per decision, or placing 4 or 10, with four rolls per decision.
Imagine you're making $10 wagers and re-betting after each decision for 100 rolls. Bet on the 2.78% version of the field, and 100 rolls bring 100 decisions. You put $1,000 at risk, and your average loss is $27.80.
When you place 5 or 9, you'd make an average of 27.8 wagers – 100 rolls divided by 3.6 rolls per decision. Your average risk would be $278, and your average loss would be $11.12 – less than half the average loss on the field.
Divide 100 rolls by the average of four rolls per decision when placing 4 or 10, and you get 25 wagers. That's a risk per 100 rolls of $250. Even with the high 6.67% house edge, the average loss of $16.68 per 100 rolls is less than the average loss when you put your money on the field. The slower pace in deciding place bets makes a big difference.
One-Roll Bets
When bets are decided in just one roll, decisions come fast and furious. That speed does not work in your favor.
Most one-roll bets also have very high house edges, and the combination of big house edge and high speed is a bankroll-killer.
Let's take a look at the house edge and the average loss per 100 rolls with $10 bets on the most common one-roll bets:
The Field
As we've just seen, the better version of the field where you get 2-1 on 2 and 3-1 on 12 – or occasionally the reverse – costs an average of $27.80 per 100 rolls. That's reflective of the 2.78% house edge.
When field payoffs on 2 and 12 are both 2-1 with no 3-1 roll, the house edge doubles to 5.56%. Average losses also double, to $55.60 when you risk $10 a roll for 100 rolls.
Any Craps
You win a 7-1 payoff if the roll is 2, 3 or 12. True odds against winning are 8-1, leaving a house edge of 11.11%.
Risk a total of $1,000 in our 100-roll trial, and the average loss soars to $111.11.
3 or 11
If you bet on 3, you have two ways to win. Either 1 must land on the first die and 2 on the second or 2 on the first and 1 on the second. Similarly, winning combos on 11 are either 6-5 or 5-6.
Payoffs on winners are 15-1, and the house edge is 11.11%. That matches the house edge on any craps, so the average loss for our 100-roll trial is $111.11.
2 or 12
There's only one winner on 2. Both dice must land on 1. To win on 12, both dice must land on 6.
Winners pay 30-1, but that's far below the true odds of 35-1. The house edge is 13.89 percent. In our trial of 100 rolls at $10 per roll, that leaves a whopping average loss of $138.90.
Any 7
Seven is the most common rolls in craps. Six of 36 possible rolls total 6. True odds against winning are 5-1, but winners pay only 4-1. The house edge is huge at 16.67%, so with 100 $10 bets, losses average $166.67.
Bottom Line
One-roll bets are hazardous to your bankroll. Most house edges are very high, and even with a reasonable edge as on the field, decisions come so rapidly they can be a drain on your chips.
Multi-Roll Bets
When it takes multiple rolls to decide a bet, you make fewer bets per 100 rolls, and that eases pressure on your bankroll.
Let's look at average losses per 100 rolls with bets of $10 per decision at common multi-roll wagers. We won't get into taking odds or laying odds. Those bets have no house edge, but to you can't make them without also betting pass, come, don't pass or don't come. Let's look as wagers you can make as independent bets.
Pass or Come
These bets work the same way. If the first roll is a comeout for the shooter's sequence, bet on pass. If it's not a comeout for the shooter, bet on come and the next roll serves as a comeout for your bet.
Either can be decided in one roll. If the dice land on 7 or 11, you win. If they land on 2, 3 or 12, you lose. More often, they land on one of the other six numbers. In that case, that number becomes the point. You win if the shooter repeats your number before rolling 7, but lose if a 7 comes first.
It takes an average of 3.38 rolls to decide a pass or come bet. Per 100 rolls, you'd average 29.6 bets. At $10 per bet, that's a risk of $296. The house edge is 1.41$, leaving an average loss of just $4.17.
At that level, you need only one more win than average to turn that expected loss into a profit.
Don't Pass or Don't Come
The near opposites of pass and come, you're betting the shooter will not make the point.
The reason these are near opposites and not fully opposites is that if the comeout is 12, don't pass or don't come push instead of winning. The do win on 2 or 3 and lose on 7 or 11, and once there's a point number, they win if the shooter rolls 7.
These take an average of 3.47 rolls to decide, leaving 28.8 decisions, a $288 average risk and with a 1.36 percent house edge an average loss of $3.92.
Place Bets
We've already seen how place bets work in the comparison with the field earlier in this article. As noted, 5 and 9 have a 4 percent house edge, take an average of 3.6 rolls to decide, leaving average losses for 100 rolls at $10 per roll at $11.11.
Place bets on 4 or 10 have a 6.67% house edge, take an average of four rolls to decide, with an average loss of $16.68 in our trial.
The most favorable place bets are those on 6 or 8, with a house edge of just 1.52%. On average, a decision takes 3.27 rolls, leaving 30.6 decisions per 100 rolls, a risk of $306 at $10 per bet and an average loss of a mere $4.65. That's not as low as pass, come, don't pass or don't come, but you can swing a profit with one more win than expected in our 100 rolls.
Hardways
To win, the shooter must roll your number the hard way before rolling either a 7 or your number the easy way.
What's the hard way for craps players? Both dice must land on the same number. A hard 4 is 2-2, hard 6 is 3-3, hard 8 if 4-4 and hard 10 is 5-5.
These have much higher house edges than the other multi-roll bets listed. Hard 6 or hard 8 pays 9-1, has a 9.09% house edge and is decided in an average of 3.27 rolls. Hard 4 or 10 pays 7-1, takes an average of four rolls to decide and carries an 11.11 percent house edge.
Average losses in our trial conditions are $27.82 on hard 6 or 8 and $27.78 on hard 4 or 10, much higher than the other multi-roll bets.
Bottom Line
One one-roll bet – the better version of the field – has an average loss per 100 rolls that is competitive with the hardways, all in that $27.80 area.
But all are much worse than pass, come, don't pass, don't come and the place bets. One-roll wagers are bets to avoid. Don't feel the need for speed.
