Card Counting

Baccarat side bets that consist of a group of related wagers have a history of big game protection problems. A team of card counters targets the side bet by dividing up the individual wagers among their group. When a team member wagers on his particular side bet, the rest of the team follows by betting on the same side bet.

The way baccarat usually operates, a winning Banker wager is charged a 5% commission, creating a house edge on the Banker bet of about 1.0579%. Another way of saying this is that a winning Banker wager pays 19-to-20.

Side bets that pay out when the dealer busts were a hot area of development a few years back. I was involved with two of these bets as the primary mathematician for the game developers. One of the wagers I analyzed was Dealer Bust 21 (see this post). The other bust-type wager I analyzed was "Bet the Bust" (BTB) for the company Tech Art. BTB is the subject of this post.

When the patent on EZ Baccarat and its Dragon 7 side bet expired in September, 2013 (see this post), there was a bit of a land rush.

In this article, I discussed the “Rabbit” baccarat side bet. It is one of three distinct baccarat side bets that are collected together into a game called ZooBac. This article discusses another one of these baccarat side bets, the “Tiger.” The third wager in the zoo is the “Monkey” side bet.

Sometimes a side bet comes along that dwarfs the others in terms of its card counting vulnerability. Such was the case with the Slingo Bonus Bet 21 side bet for blackjack.

The mission to teach casinos that they should not fear blackjack card counters is one that I have been on for a long time. This fear arises from two memetic misconceptions. First, that there are a lot of card counters. Second, that there is a lot of money to be made from card counting.

In “Blackjack Attack, Playing the Pro’s Way, 2nd edition” (BA), author Donald Schlesinger presents the “World’s Greatest Blackjack Simulation.” One of his achievements was to determine the win-rate per 100 hands for six-deck blackjack, using the Illustrious 18 (see this post), and four additio

Lucky 8 (L8) is a baccarat side bet I first heard about on the Wizard of Vegas website in this thread. As the name implies, a Player/Banker final total of 8 is key to winning this bet.

From time to time the question of card counting in baccarat comes up. Because baccarat is dealt from a shoe, it follows that the odds for the banker/player/tie bets change as cards are dealt. As more and more cards are dealt, a counter will get an ever more precise estimation of the composition of the cards that remain.

There are two common commission free variations of the basic game of baccarat. Each leaves the drawing rules unchanged. Each pays winning Player bets even money, maintaining a house edge of 1.2351% on winning Player bets (assuming an eight-deck shoe). The key feature of these variations is that each has a payout reduction for a distinguished winning Banker bet.

There is a common misunderstanding among surveillance, security, and management that blackjack card counters are among the top reasons that shifts lose money (or have a reduced hold). One floor manager said to me that: “they walk out of here with $600 to $800 each time.” The primary purpose of game protection is not to catch card counters.

Up until "7 Up Baccarat" (7UB), there has not been a variant of baccarat that is substantially vulnerable to card counting. While baccarat side bets can be a lucrative opportunity, the best an AP can do card counting standard baccarat is an earning rate of about 87 cents-per-shoe with a $1000 maximum bet (see this post).

There is a variant of baccarat that was brought to my attention last July. This version, called "2-to-1 Baccarat," is non-commission. It has a fairly significant twist in the rules. A three-card winning total of 8 or 9 pays 2-to-1 for bets on the winning side. To balance this extra payout, a bet on Banker or Player loses if the hand ends in a tie.

Blackjack has earned its place as the most popular casino table game for two main reasons. First, the house edge is typically less than any other table game, making it very cheap for the recreational player. Second, its notoriety as a game that is beatable by card counting and other methods.