Are video poker machines rigged? Plenty of gamblers believe that they are.
I knew a player who was convinced that certain video poker machines were rigged. His “proof” was winning hands did not appear as often as they mathematically should. The data he collected to prove his point was a few thousand hands and the number of times certain hands (such as a full house) were winners. The number of winning hands he showed me were, indeed, off the mark.
Does this information prove the machine was rigged? Read on to find out more.
Contents
- What do you mean by the word rigged?
- Brief description of how video poker machines work
- Fair (random) video poker games
- The error in the “proof”
- Summary
What do you mean by the word 'rigged'?
It is probably a good idea to define what is meant by the word rigged. All video poker games are “rigged” in one sense.
They are programmed to give the house (and on very, very rare occasions, the player) an edge. This is accomplished by adjusting the pay table. Changes are made to the payoffs of the winning hands so they pay less than the mathematical odds of the hands appearing.
Certain winning hands might be paid at the true odds, others perhaps a bit higher than true odds, and some at less than true odds. The average amount paid for the entire pay table is virtually always less that the true odds. This gives the casino the edge.
Some players might consider setting returns to favor the house as rigging. In that case, all games on the casino floor are rigged. They either pay fewer winning hands than losing hands, or the winning hands are paid at less than true odds.
The type of rigged machine that the player in the introduction was complaining about was not that the house had an edge by short-paying winning hands, it was that the frequency of winning hands should match the mathematically-calculated frequency.
For the rest of this article, rigged means not random. Tweaking the payoffs for winning hands is not considered rigging, but offering games that are not random is considered rigging.
Brief description of how video poker machines work
Video poker machines (as well as virtually all machine-based casino games) are based on the results of a programmed random number generator. Being a programmed algorithm, it cannot be truly random. However, it is extremely close to random – close enough to be considered random by gaming regulators.
The random number generator (or RNG) is constantly cycling at a rate of thousands per second. At the instant the player hits the Deal or Draw button, the RNG is sampled and the number(s) retrieved are translated into card(s). The rank and suit are based on the number that was sampled.
This process generates random hands – or close enough to random to pass rigid tests of regulators.
Fair (random) video poker games
Depending on where you play, video poker games may or may not be random – or, in other words, fair.
The good news is the large United States gaming destinations such as Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Tunica, and many others are controlled by gaming commissions. It is their job to certify the casino games in their jurisdiction are fair (random).
The same cannot be said for some smaller casinos not under the control of gaming commissions. It also cannot be said about all online video poker games. Large online gaming sites such as 888casino are certified to be fair. 888casino is regulated not only by every state in which they are allowed, but also by the Government of Gibraltar, the UK Gambling Commission, and the Malta Gaming Authority.
If the casino, either land-based or online, is so regulated, you can be assured that the games are fair.
The error in the “proof”
Okay, you may be thinking, if the player in the introduction found that the video poker machines he was playing did not produce the proper frequency of winning hands, how could those games be fair?
That is a very good question.
Any random event, by definition, cannot be predicted. If I randomly flip a coin, the math says that 50% of the time it will land with heads up and 50% of the time it will land with tails up. It will not, however, necessarily alternate with each flip of the coin. It might start out with three heads, then one tail, then three more heads, then two tails, then heads, then tails, and so on.
In the previous scenario, the split between heads and tails is never exactly 50/50. However, as the number of random flips continues to grow, the balance between heads and tails will edge closer to 50/50.
The player in the introduction kept data for thousands of hands. Assume the math of a particular video poker game and pay table states that a full house will occur once every 87 hands and a flush will occur once every 91 hands. That in no way means a full house will occur exactly once every 87 hands or a flush exactly once every 91 hands.
In the coin flip situation, it is possible in a random flip that 10 or more heads will appear in a row. Using the same frequency for the video poker hands would amount to one full house in 870 hands and one flush in 910 hands. This, clearly, is nowhere near the mathematical average. However, in the coin toss, the fact the heads came up 10 times, also means that in video poker the full house or flush could, in a random machine, come up several times in a row.
Had the player in the introduction kept track of MILLIONS of hands, the results would be very close to the mathematical average.
Summary
If rigged means that the game is set for the casino to win, all casino games are rigged. If rigged means random, video poker machines in gambling venues and online sites that are licensed and regulated by authorities, are random. They are considered fair, and therefore not rigged.
Mathematically calculated frequencies are based on an infinite number of events. The higher the number of events, the closer to the mathematical average are the results.
